A month of war in Ukraine: What happened and what happens next?





Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian military has turned what many thought would be a ‘lightening invasion’ into a war of grinding battles.

Analysts thought Russia would be able to capture Kyiv, take out the country's leadership and install a new puppet government.

But a month on, President Zelenskyy remains in office and the people of Ukraine continue to defy expectations with their resilience.

This animation shows you how areas of Russian control and advancement have changed over the last four weeks.

During that time:

Kyiv remained under Ukrainian control and fierce counter attacks have happened across the country
Civilians took to the streets in the occupied city of Kherson in protest
Cities have been turned into fortresses to hamper Russian advances

As Russia has stalled, the war has become bloodier - with tactics shifting to target civilian areas.

What is the current situation?

Cities have been turned to ruin by relentless shelling. More than 3.6 million people have been forced to leave their homes and it is likely thousands have died. But Ukraine is still fighting back.

The map below shows Russian control, advances and claimed areas on 23 March.

Only small areas have been claimed, with Russia operating in the north, east and south.

The invading forces have continued to attempt to encircle Kyiv, but have been unable to do so.

A thin line of Russian advancement connects the north and east of the country.

What does this mean in terms of how much territory Russia controls?

In the first three days, Russian forces gained a lot of ground.

Then they stalled.




The land controlled by Russia has remained roughly between 45,000 and 48,000 square miles since 27 February.

But what are the key factors that have shaped the war so far?

The invasion and underestimating the Ukrainians

In the first week, Michael Clarke, a defence analyst, assessed that "if you don't win quickly, you don't win" and he says that still holds true.

"The Russians made 'the' fatal mistake: they underestimated their opponent. The Kremlin thought they'd be welcomed as liberators - but as we've seen in Kherson - the protests against Russian occupation just go on!"

"It should have been a 72-hour plan and at the end of 72 hours they hadn't got very far and it was clear it wasn't working."

Poor logistics and planning

Poor logistics "have proved Russia's Achilles heel", Professor Clarke says.

"Simply, they weren't prepared for a long fight, met fiercer resistance than expected… forcing them to regroup and re-supply and vulnerable to counter attacks."

A convoy of Russian military vehicles spread out along a 40-mile stretch of road stuck for days outside of the capital became a symbol of this failing.

Move to shelling and attacking civilians

In the second week, when Russia realised their invasion was not going to be over as quickly as they intended, they changed their tactics.

"[Russia began] surrounding cities they couldn't take and then started to bombard them," Professor Clarke says.

By the third week of the war, Russia worked to try to "draw the Ukrainians into a sort of meat grinder" in some cities, explains Professor Clarke.

The eastern city of Mariupol is one of those and it has become a symbol of defiance but also tragedy.

The perimeter of the city is still holding, despite suffering such a long and sustained attack.

One of Russia's targets was a theatre thought to have been filled with hundreds of people who had lost their homes already.

It was struck despite the Russian word for children - "дети" - visible outside the theatre.

New satellite images show the extent of the damage to the building.

Russia also began targeting key infrastructure.

An attack on Europe's biggest nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia on 3 March sparked fears Russian actions could bring large-scale disaster. A fire at the struck training centre was successfully put out.

Sanctions and support

The West and NATO still refuse to be drawn into a direct fight with Russia, but there has been an unprecedented economic campaign against Moscow.

Sanctions have targeted Russian imports and exports as well as individuals, with Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich personally sanctioned on 10 March.

"If Putin thought the West would remain a bystander - he's been mistaken on a few fronts," Professor Clarke explains.

"The sanctions implemented by the West are some of the biggest ever put in place and over time will have a punishing effect on the Russian economy."

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